Soccer Bettingby Andrew Patterson |
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A very brief introduction to soccer betting (includes a nice system though)
Soccer, or football for those of you not from North America, is perhaps the world's most popular sport. A lot of dollars (and even more pounds, euro, and all sorts of other currencies) are wagered on football matches every week. Not surprisingly, the bookmakers are very good at what they do. The odds are usually perfect.
So where's the profit?
Well, as with any sport, the secret is that the bookmakers are not looking to prove how accurate they are at assessing probabilities. They are looking to make money, and they usually do this by trying to attract an equal amount of money on each side.
Actually, I lied. The UK and European bookmakers are very good at setting lines (although there can still be some very nice local differences - especially in Champions League / UEFA / International matches). Bookmakers with a North American focus who are only offering football / soccer betting to be copycats tend to set worse lines and adjust them slower.
Here's a very interesting statistic. For every dollar bet on away favourites, the bookmakers typically return $1.05. Yes, with no further selection than looking for teams playing away from home whose win odds are less than 2-1, you can expect to make a profit on football betting! As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and you should shop around for the best odds.
This is a good edge anyway, and if you're selective in the games you bet, you could definitely increase that edge. These figures are based on 4 seasons of data, almost 40,000 games so I'd say it's a decently established pattern.
Just a short article for now I'm afraid. I'm still trying to get my head around how best to bet soccer football (other than looking for arbitrage opportunities).Comments on Soccer Betting |
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In the NFL, underdogs playing at home have a history of beating the spread.
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